Friday, March 13, 2020

Tomas Pueyo: "Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now", mathematical paper on Medium



Tomas Pueyo, a 33-year old Silicon Valley executive (I think he is connected to Linked In) gives the public a very stern warning in a detailed and mathematical (implicitly using a lot of calculus) article,  “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now”, dated Tuesday March 10 (one day before WHO declared a global pandemic, and I wonder if this article was the trigger), updated today, and subtitled, “Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?” 
  
  
I must say that the tone of this is a bit like my article on Medium on EMP from Aug, 2018 (link here ).
  
Pueyo provides a lot of bar graphs in terms of “real cases” v. “reported cases” upon which authorities acted.  He discusses some extrapolations (which would involve some infinite series and calculus) on how to predict the overall death rates, taking into account that it takes a long time for some deaths to show up, and also that many mild or asymptomatic cases have not been counted.  The overall conclusion seems to be that in a well-managed outbreak the death per infection is likely to be a little under 1% .  But once the health care system is overwhelmed, it goes up quickly.

He also notes that when Wuhan was locked down, the rate of real new infections leveled off, even though the reported cases continued to rise sharply for some time.
   
The value of this very long paper is that you can read it  (26 minutes according to Medium), rather than watch a long video (like Chris Martenson and Peak Prosperity).
  
 Art work: A park near Frederick MD (2020/3). 

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