Tomas Pueyo, a 33-year old Silicon Valley executive (I
think he is connected to Linked In) gives the public a very stern warning in a
detailed and mathematical (implicitly using a lot of calculus) article, “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now”, dated Tuesday March 10 (one day before
WHO declared a global pandemic, and I wonder if this article was the trigger),
updated today, and subtitled, “Politicians, Community Leaders and Business
Leaders: What Should You Do and When?”
I must say that the tone of this is a bit like my
article on Medium on EMP from Aug, 2018 (link here ).
Pueyo provides a lot of bar graphs in terms of “real
cases” v. “reported cases” upon which authorities acted. He discusses some extrapolations (which would
involve some infinite series and calculus) on how to predict the overall death
rates, taking into account that it takes a long time for some deaths to show
up, and also that many mild or asymptomatic cases have not been counted. The overall conclusion seems to be that in a
well-managed outbreak the death per infection is likely to be a little under 1%
. But once the health care system is
overwhelmed, it goes up quickly.
He also notes that when Wuhan was locked down, the
rate of real new infections leveled off, even though the reported cases
continued to rise sharply for some time.
The value of this very long paper is that you can read
it (26 minutes according to Medium),
rather than watch a long video (like Chris Martenson and Peak Prosperity).
Art work: A park near Frederick MD (2020/3).
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